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Caution and Hope for the New Year
As we begin the New Year, let's look back before looking forward. Not since the Great Depression has America experienced such economic and financial deterioration in such a relatively short period of time.
Housing at the Brink
By: David Lereah; Thu, Sep 9, 2010
Now that the homebuyer tax credit is no longer able to prop up home sales, risks facing the housing market are heavily weighted to the downside.
At Long Last- Good News for Housing
By: David Lereah; Fri, Apr 9, 2010
Housing activity has slipped considerably during these past several months but help may be on its way. A primary obstacle to a long term housing recovery has been a lack of hiring. But recent gains in the job market portends favorably for a needed boost in housing demand.
Housing Outlook: A Mixed Bag
By: David Lereah; Wed, Mar 17, 2010
Looking forward, expect downward pressure on home values, as measured by the Case-Shiller index, due to mounting foreclosures, supply imbalances and relatively weak housing demand.
A Sputtering Housing Market
By: David Lereah; Thu, Mar 4, 2010
Housing activity is sputtering even though there are government subsidy programs in place to support housing demand.
Observations on the Economy and Housing Market
By: David Lereah; Wed, Feb 10, 2010
At a cursory glance, the U.S. economy is improving, while the status of the housing market remains uncertain.
Mounting Foreclosures Impede Housing Recovery
By: David Lereah; Mon, Feb 1, 2010
It is painfully clear that the number one obstacle preventing a complete housing recovery is the foreclosure crisis.
Falling Home Values: The Worst may be Over
By: David Lereah; Mon, Jan 25, 2010
During the past several years, the nation's housing sector has been weighed down with a disturbing trend that had been absent since the Great Depression: falling home values.
The New Year Begins with Uncertain Housing Outlook
By: David Lereah; Mon, Jan 4, 2010
Housing data released this past month suggest a more uncertain housing outlook than the month before.
Housing Industry Poised to Recover in 2010
By: David Lereah; Thu, Dec 17, 2009
As we approach the New Year, we are more hopeful about prospects for 2010 compared to the dismal performance of 2009.
A Web of Housing Subsidies Threatens the Recovery
By: David Lereah; Thu, Dec 10, 2009
Don't let recent good news about the nation's housing sector lull you into believing that the housing market is firmly on the road to recovery-because it isn't.
Is the Expanded Homebuyer Tax Credit Overkill?
By: David Lereah; Tue, Nov 24, 2009
Wild swings in the housing data released this past week indicate that both homebuilders and households were heavily influenced by the tax credit extension debate.
Data Suggests Housing Recovery Has Stalled, Temporarily
By: David Lereah; Thu, Nov 19, 2009
Today's housing recovery is having a difficult time settling into a steady trajectory.
Homebuyer Tax Credit Overly Generous
By: David Lereah; Wed, Nov 4, 2009
The great debate surrounding the fate of the first-time homebuyer tax credit appears to have ended on a good note; at least for the millions of households ready to purchase a home.
Record Budget Deficit Casts Dark Shadow over Economy and Housing
By: David Lereah; Thu, Oct 22, 2009
The Office of Management and Budget announced last week that the federal budget deficit soared to an all-time record $1.42 trillion in fiscal year 2009.
Housing Organizations Predict Expansion in 2010
By: David Lereah; Mon, Oct 12, 2009
The consensus forecast among major real estate organizations is for the housing downturn to come to a close in 2009 and for the expansion to begin in 2010. THE NEW HOUSING FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE NOW! http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2009/10/market-forecastindustry-forecast/
Housing Turning Corner and Helping Economy
By: David Lereah; Mon, Oct 12, 2009
Both the economy and the housing markets have displayed concrete signs of improvement during the past several months.
Extend the Homebuyer Tax Credit
By: David Lereah; Sun, Oct 11, 2009
With the expiration date rapidly approaching, supporters of the first-time homebuyer tax credit fear that the housing recovery may stumble in the absence of this housing subsidy.
Housing Recovery: Built on Bricks or Sticks?
By: David Lereah; Thu, Sep 17, 2009
Recent housing indicators such as existing home sales, new home sales and housing starts, suggest a recovery is underway in the nation's housing sector. But is the recovery sustainable?
Will Inflation Rear Its Ugly Head?
By: David Lereah; Mon, Sep 7, 2009
Eventually, the piper has to get paid. Excessive government spending and money supply growth have left an aftermath of conditions that portend unfavorably for the inflation outlook.
Home Sales Up; Home Prices Down
By: David Lereah; Wed, Aug 26, 2009
It is becoming increasingly clear that a two-headed housing recovery is underway. Unfortunately, unlike Siamese twins, the heads will not be arriving at the same time.
Slowly but Surely Economy, Housing Improving
By: David Lereah; Mon, Aug 17, 2009
Slowly but surely, progress is being made for both the economy and the housing sector.
The Two Headed Housing Recovery
By: David Lereah; Thu, Aug 6, 2009
Both home sales/construction and home prices have fallen precipitously during today's housing recession. Thus, for us to proclaim a complete recovery in the today's housing sector, both home sales/construction and home prices must stabilize and begin their ascent.
Housing Data Point to Sales Recovery
By: David Lereah; Mon, Jul 27, 2009
Just a half year ago, the U.S. financial system was on the brink of collapse; the economy was headed towards a Depression; and the housing sector was in disrepair. Today, everything seems to be nervously falling into place for both the economy and the housing sector.
The Incredible Shrinking Housing Market
By: David Lereah; Fri, Jul 17, 2009
Nearly three and a half years into a spiraling downturn, our nation's housing sector looks like a mere shadow of itself. It is a housing market that has shrunk by almost 40 percent in home sales during the past several years and has partly closed its door on low income and minority households.
Don’t Judge the Housing Market by its Cover
By: David Lereah; Wed, Jul 8, 2009
A cursory glance at the U.S. housing markets suggests that the worst is over and the recovery is on its way. But before we declare victory, we must consider the possibility of a false start.
Financial Regulatory Reform is Necessary for Economic Recovery
By: David Lereah; Thu, Jun 25, 2009
Even though recent economic reports have indicated that the worst may be over, the U.S. economy and housing markets remain in a fragile state. Recovery is tenuous at best and reform of our financial system is a necessary ingredient for a successful economic recovery.
How Can We Stabilize Home Values?
By: David Lereah; Mon, Jun 15, 2009
The decline in residential real estate prices over the past several years has inflicted severe damage to the U.S. economy and housing markets. Policymakers have made attempts to stem the tide of plummeting home values, but to date, no government program has been meaningfully successful. Until home prices stabilize, it is difficult to imagine a housing sector in recovery.
The Bumpy Road to Recovery
By: David Lereah; Mon, Jun 15, 2009
Investors are anticipating a recovery for the economy in the second half of this year as evidenced by recent upward pressures on long term interest rates and advances in equity values. But the road to recovery is anything but smooth.
Digesting This Week’s Housing Data
By: David Lereah; Thu, Jun 4, 2009
There has been a great deal of housing data released this past week to digest; some good news and some bad news. Since many believe that the housing sector may have already bottomed out, we are particularly focused on any new information that can either confirm or deny this claim.
Home Price Indices Disappoint
By: David Lereah; Wed, May 27, 2009
The recent release of the Case-Shiller home price index for March was disappointing news for the housing markets. Unfortunately, other recent home price measures-- the FHFA purchase-only home price index and the median price for existing homes also disappointed the markets.
Purchase Applications Indicate Weak Housing Demand
By: David Lereah; Thu, May 21, 2009
With most housing measures showing improvement in recent months, there is one measure that is bucking the trend- mortgage applications to purchase homes.
Difficult Housing Recovery Ahead
By: David Lereah; Sat, May 16, 2009
Recent data suggest the worst may be over for the housing markets. But only when home values stabilize will there be a true recovery in housing.
Housing Recovery May Be in Sight
By: David Lereah; Tue, May 12, 2009
There are more than subtle signs that the housing markets may be recovering and the worst may be over. Recent data releases support this notion.
Rising Mortgage Rates May Be Good for Housing
By: David Lereah; Mon, May 11, 2009
The economy is showing signs of improving and that may help an anemic housing sector recover.
Housing Markets Searching for a Bottom
By: David Lereah; Mon, Apr 27, 2009
Our nation's housing sector has experienced a great deal of pain during these past two years. The bursting of the housing bubble has not ...
Bailout Fatigue
By: David Lereah; Tue, Mar 24, 2009
A wave of public rage erupted this past week when reports that American International Group, AIG, paid $165 million in retention bonuses to...
A Breath of Fresh Air
By: David Lereah; Tue, Mar 17, 2009
Good news about the economy and housing markets has been rare this past year so when something positive...
A Sinking Feeling
By: David Lereah; Tue, Mar 10, 2009
The mounting dismal data are too overwhelming to deny any longer—the glass is half empty. The economy is...
Housing Recovery Slowed by Economy
By: David Lereah; Tue, Mar 3, 2009
Recovery in our nation’s housing sector has taken a step backward. Most economic and housing ...
All Eyes on Government Rescue Efforts
By: David Lereah; Tue, Feb 24, 2009
There is a growing frustration among investors these days as incoming reports on economic activity remain dreary and conditions in the financial markets have soured. All eyes are on government rescue efforts to revive an economy headed in the wrong direction. Unfortunately, recent policy pronouncements have been unsuccessful in arousing investor confidence as evidenced by the underperformance of the equity and bond markets.
Drama on Capitol Hill
By: David Lereah; Tue, Feb 17, 2009
The drama surrounding the long awaited stimulus package and the highly anticipated rollout of the Trea¬sury bailout plan took center stage this past week. After much heated debate and some give and take, the House of Representatives and the Senate approved a compro¬mise $787 billion stimulus package late Friday. The package is designed to jump start an economy deep in recession with a mix of government spending programs and tax cuts/benefits. Specifically, it aims to create mil¬lions of jobs through massive new investments in en¬ergy, transportation, education and health-care projects, while reviving social safety net programs that have been shrinking for nearly three decades.
Caution and Hope for the New Year
By: David Lereah; Tue, Jan 6, 2009
As we begin the New Year, we look back before we look forward. Not since the Great Depression has America experienced such economic and financial deterioration. The U.S. financial system collapsed in 2008 with the flow of credit virtually frozen throughout the financial markets. Two of the nation’s most respected investment banks--Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns failed and the nation’s largest mortgage lender--Countrywide--went belly up. The two mortgage funding giants, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, were taken over by the Federal government and are now under conservatorship. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley sought safer harbor by becoming bank holding companies. The government bailed out our nation’s largest insurer, AIG, and then handed a bailout package to two of our largest automakers, General Motors and Chrysler.
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