(April 15, 2009 Release)
Highlights
• The housing market index rose by 5 points in April to 14 from a 9 registered in March.
• The March index of 14 remains well below the 20 index of a year ago.
• The buyer traffic index also rose to 14 in April from 9 in March.
• Homebuilder expectations over the next 6 months rose 10 pointss to 25 compared to a March index of 15.
Source: National Association of Home Builders
| NAHB Housing Market Index | ||||
| Apr 09 | Mar 09 | 3 mo Avg | 1 year ago | |
| Housing Market Index | 14 | 9 | 10.7 | 20 |
| Northeast | 16 | 8 | 10.7 | 22 |
| Northcentral | 14 | 8 | 10 | 15 |
| South | 17 | 12 | 13.7 | 24 |
| West | 9 | 5 | 6.3 | 17 |
| Single Family Sales | ||||
| Present | 13 | 8 | 9.3 | 18 |
| Next 6 months | 25 | 15 | 18.3 | 30 |
| Buyer Traffic | 14 | 9 | 11.3 | 19 |
Analysis
The housing market index is a leading indicator of future new home sales. The April numbers reflects a positive development for the building industry. Although the indices for all of the categories in the survey are still well below year ago levels, home builders were more confident about their current and future business conditions than they were a month earlier. The index appears to have bottomed in January at 8. However, the April index remains close to bottom and a downside still remains due to the economic recession, mounting job losses and tight credit conditions. We will need to see several upticks of the housing market index before laying claim that the homebuilding industry is on the road to recovery.
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