(May 18, 2009 Release)
Highlights
• The housing market index rose by 2 points in May to 16 from a 14 registered in April.
• The May index of 16 remains well below the 20 index of a year ago; but is 48 percent above its 6 month average.
• The buyer traffic index heald steady at 13 in May.
• Homebuilder expectations over the next 6 months rose 3 points to 27 compared to an April index of 24.
| NAHB Housing Market Index | ||||
| May 09 | April 09 | 3 mo Avg | 6 mo Avg | |
| Housing Market Index | 16 | 14 | 13.0 | 10.8 |
| Northeast | 18 | 15 | 13.7 | 11.7 |
| Midwest | 14 | 14 | 12 | 9.3 |
| South | 18 | 17 | 15.7 | 13.3 |
| West | 12 | 8 | 8.3 | 6.8 |
| Single Family Sales | ||||
| Present | 14 | 12 | 11.3 | 9.2 |
| Next 6 months | 27 | 24 | 22.0 | 19.0 |
| Buyer Traffic | 13 | 13 | 11.7 | 10.2 |
Source: National Association of Home Builders
Analysis
The housing market index is a leading indicator of future new home sales. The May numbers reflects a positive development for the building industry. Although the indices for all of the categories in the survey are still well below year ago levels, home builders were more confident about their current and future business conditions than they were a month earlier and more importantly 6 months ago. The index appears to have bottomed in January at 8. However, the May index remains at a relatively low level and a downside still remains due to the economic recession, mounting job losses and tight credit conditions. We will need to see several upticks of the housing market index before laying claim that the homebuilding industry is on the road to recovery.
April 14th, 2012 at 7:08 am
Philadelphia: The suburbs are still nsnaie in their pricing. Even ghetto suburbs like Croydon expect 180K for a wooden shack that has not been updated since they were built in 1940. As you know, Philly is the land of Row Homes. A lot of New York investors came down in the pervious three years and ruined the NE section of the city. Prices rose from an average of 60K in 2003 to 140K in 2005. Now they sell for about 125K to 115K but there are still some NY idiots out there that are paying 180K or more for 60 year old junk and believing they are getting a deal.(usually of foreign extraction, russians, asians, etc.)The one telling factor right now is that stagnant sales are everywhere. Many are giving up and taking their signs down. The lack of buyers has greatly reduced the amount of housing for sale here in the NE section. On a good note, the younger purchasers tend to fix up their properties but lack basic skills such as lawn cutting, and tend to be careless with their trash and don’t pay any attention to the needs of their children. They are too busy working trying to pay their astronomical mortgages for row house living. Still very overpriced, but the suburbs are MUCH worse with regard to out of control prices versus what you are getting for your dollar. Average suburb cost is 250K for a small single, usually in bad shape with less than 1/4 acre of ground. Many of them were built with pipes laid in floor concrete, heating elements that are encased in concrete and are now so expensive to maintain that they need complete replacement. Taxes are VERY high in Montgomery and Bucks counties and most older couples CANNOT RETIRE because the taxes are near 600-800 per month in some cases. New Jersey is even worse. Get this…. Luxury over 55 community in CAMDEN county, NJ. Cost to get in 279,000 for 1 bedroom minimum, PLUS 275 a month community fee PLUS 7,719 dollars per year to pay in PROPERTY TAX. Wow! What a deal for retirement!New Jersey is the Land of OZ when it comes to fantasy versus reality.