| Housing Forecasts, Oct 2009 | |||||||||||||
| NAR | NAHB | MBA | Fannie Mae | Freddie Mac | Average | ||||||||
| Mortgage Rates | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2009 | 2010 | 2009 | 2010 | 2009 | 2010 | 2009 | 2010 | 2009 | 2010 |
| 30-yr FRM | 6.0 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 5.5 |
| 1-yr ARM | 5.2 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 5.0 |
| Housing Measures(Ths.) | |||||||||||||
| EHS* | 4,913 | 4,980 | 5,426 | 4,416 | 4,975 | 5,012 | 5,575 | 4,914 | 5,470 | 4,820** | 5,600** | 4,831 | 5,361 |
| NHS | 485 | 403 | 509 | 389 | 525 | 398 | 484 | 407 | 495 | na | na | 399 | 503 |
| Housing Starts | 904 | 557 | 804 | 564 | 716 | 574 | 750 | 589 | 799 | 570 | 800 | 571 | 774 |
| Mortgage Orig | 1,620 | na | na | na | na | 1,963 | 1,556 | 2,007 | 1,461 | 2,165 | 2,000 | 2,045 | 1,672 |
| % chg – year ago | |||||||||||||
| EHS | -13.1 | 1.4 | 8.9 | -10.1 | 12.7 | 2.0 | 11.2 | 0.0 | 11.3 | na | na | 0.3 | 9.6 |
| NHS | -37.5 | -17.0 | 26.5 | -19.8 | 35.0 | -17.9 | 21.6 | -16.1 | 21.6 | na | na | -17.1 | 25.4 |
| Housing Starts | -33.3 | -38.4 | 44.3 | -37.6 | 20.8 | -36.5 | 30.7 | -35.0 | 35.7 | -37.0 | 40.4 | -36.2 | 34.3 |
| Mortgage Orig | -31.3 | na | na | na | na | 21.2 | -20.7 | 23.9 | -27.2 | 33.6 | -7.6 | 37.0 | -22.0 |
| Median Prices (Ths.$) | |||||||||||||
| Existing Homes | 198.1 | 172.7 | 179.4 | na | na | 172.2 | 173.6 | 176.8 | 173.8 | na | na | 174.0 | 175.6 |
| New Homes | 232.1 | 210.8 | 220.9 | na | na | 211.0 | 212.0 | 213.8 | 210.1 | na | na | 211.9 | 214.3 |
| % chg – year ago | |||||||||||||
| Existing Prices | -9.5 | -12.8 | 3.9 | na | na | -13.1 | 0.8 | -10.8 | -1.7 | na | na | -12.2 | 0.5 |
| New Prices | -6.4 | -9.2 | 4.8 | na | na | -9.1 | 0.5 | -7.9 | -1.7 | na | na | -8.6 | 0.8 |
*Existing home sales excludes condos;** Existing plus new home sales
Sources: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Mortgage Bankers Association, National Association of Homebuilders, National Association of Realtors
Highlights
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The consensus forecast among the major real estate organizations is for the housing downturn to come to a close in 2009.
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The consensus forecast projects a 0.3 percent drop in existing home sales in 2009 and a 9.6 percent increase in existing home sales in 2010.
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According to the housing group, 30-year mortgage rates are expected to average 5.2 percent in 2009 and 5.7 percent in 2010.
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Both new home sales and housing starts are expected to experience wild swings, falling by 17.1 percent and 36.2 percent in 2009, respectively; and increasing by 25.4 percent and 34.3 percent in 2010, respectively.
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The Mortgage Bankers Association, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae were the only organizations to forecast mortgage originations. The projected average of the three organizations is 37.0 percent increase in originations in 2009 to $2.219 trillion from $1.620 trillion in 2008. For 2010, the three organizations projected a 22.0 percent decrease in originations to$1.731 trillion in 2010.
October 23rd, 2009 at 7:33 am
Thanks for these forecasts. These are all useful for people who are still hopefuls in the real estate industry. Good luck on all your endeavors. hBy the way, I know a real estate coach who could also help many in the real estate industry make money despite the current crisis.