Case-Shiller Price Index- Oct 2010 Data

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index- October 2010 Data

(10 & 20 City Indices)

% chg yr/yr %chg mo/mo

Boston -0.2 -1.2

Chicago -6.5 -2.0

Denver -1.8 -0.6

Las Vegas -3.6 -0.2

Los Angeles 3.3 -0.7

Miami -3.4 -1.1

New York -1.7 -1.6

San Diego 3.0 -1.5

San Francisco 2.2 -1.9

Washington, DC 3.7 -0.2

Source: Standard & Poor’s/Fiserv

Highlights

• The 20-city composite index fell 0.8% year over year, while the 10-city index rose by only 0.2%.
• The 0.8% drop was the index’s first decline since January.
• Chicago experienced the largest year over year decline at 6.5%, while Washington, Dc experienced the greatest increase in home values from a year earlier at 3.7%.
• From its peak, the 20-city index is down almost 30%, while the 10-city index is down by the same percentage.

Analysis

Home values are dropping faster than anticipated since existing home sales actually nudged up a bit during the August to October period. But the foreclosure moratoria in October and beyond, suggests that home values may not fall by as much in the next Case-Shiller home price report. This is merely a timing issue; delaying the inevitable-falling home prices. We expect home values will drop precipitously during the first quarter of this year.

Eventually, towards the end of this year and into 2012, home values will stabilize as foreclosure sales lessen. It is likely that we are now on the downside of the foreclosure pipeline. Expect home values to reach bottom sometime between the second and third quarter of this year.