Harris Poll Detects Uptick in Home Buying Sentiment

A new Harris Poll released today finds no significant changes in consumer expectations in how Americans will spend their money on big ticket items over the next 6 months, with the possible exception of homes.

Consumers who say that they expect to have more money to spend the way they want (28 percent), to buy a new computer (21 percent), to move to a different home (17 percent) or to buy or lease a new car or truck (12 percent) are all virtually unchanged since May 2009.

However, the percentage of consumers who expect to buy a new house or condo are is up slightly, from 7 percent in May 2010 to 10 percent now, the highest it has been since March 2008. Ninety percent of consumers said that it is unlikely they will buy a home in the next six months.

The survey found two other changes in sentiment that are “only a few percentage points since May and it is not clear whether these reflect real changes.” Those who expect to buy a boat or RV have doubled from 3 percent to 6 percent. And 10 percent expect to start a new business compared to 6 percent who said so in May.

Just over half (52 percent) of all adults say they expect to save or invest more money, virtually the same percentage who said this in all seven of the polls over the last two years that asked this question. About two-thirds of all adults continue to say that they expect to spend less on eating out (66 percent) and entertainment (62 percent).

“These findings are consistent with other Harris Polls in that they find no evidence of any significant change in consumer sentiment, up or down. They strongly suggest that a substantial change in consumer spending is unlikely in the near future, that in the absence of increased spending economic growth will be sluggish and that unemployment is unlikely to decline in the next few months,” Harris said.

The poll was conducted online within the United States between September 14 to 20, 2010 among 2,620 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online.

TABLE 2

SPENDING/SAVINGS OVER NEXT SIX MONTHS - TREND

“How likely will you be to do the following within the next 6 months?”

Percent saying “Very/Somewhat Likely”

Base: All adults