RealEstateEconomyWatch.com Insight and Intelligence on Residential Real Estate
(May 19, 2009 Release)
Highlights
• Residential housing construction registered 458,000 units in April, down 12.8 percent from March. The decline in housing starts was much stronger than expected.
• The 3 month average is 519,000 which continues to reflect a dismal home building marketplace.
• Most of the decline in starts were due to multi-family construction activity rather than single family activity. Single family starts were up 2.8 percent in April while multi family starts were down 46.1 percent.
• Building permits were down 3.3 percent in April to 494,000, which does not portend favorably for future residential construction activity.
Source: Census Bureau
| New Residential Construction (Mil. SAAR) | ||||
| Apr 09 | Mar 09 | 3 mo Avg | 6 mo Avg | |
| Housing Starts | 0.458 | 0.525 | 0.519 | 0.543 |
| % change | -12.8 | -8.5 | ||
| Single Family | 0.368 | 0.358 | 0.361 | 0.382 |
| % change | 2.8 | 0.0 | ||
| Multi-Family | 0.090 | 0.167 | 0.158 | 0.161 |
| % change | -46.1 | -23.0 | ||
| Northeast | 0.050 | 0.072 | 0.061 | 0.057 |
| % change | -30.5 | 16.1 | ||
| Midwest | 0.077 | 0.098 | 0.089 | 0.085 |
| % change | -21.4 | 5.4 | ||
| South | 0.217 | 0.275 | 0.266 | 0.282 |
| % change | -21.1 | -10.1 | ||
| West | 0.114 | 0.080 | 0.102 | 0.119 |
| % change | 42.5 | -29.2 | ||
| Total Building Permits | 0.494 | 0.511 | 0.518 | 0.547 |
| % change | -3.3 | -7.1 | ||
Analysis
The larger than expected drop in housing starts in April was disappointing news. However, all of the decline can be attributed to multifamily construction activity which fell 46 percent. The multifamily component is usually erratic from month to month and is not as reliable as the single family component which was up slightly for the month. Focusing on single family starts, it is possible that the housing correction may be nearing a bottom; the cyclical low for single family starts was 357,000 in January. However, building permits were down 3.3 percent which suggests that residential construction activity will remain depressed in the coming months. On a positive note, a closer look at permits indicates that most of the decline were in multi-family permits.
Aside from the disappointing starts numbers for April, the backdrop for home building may be improving. All three major housing measures- starts, existing home sales and new home sales- are above their cyclical lows. And even though housing inventories remain excessive, the supply of homes on market has slowly come down. Further, mortgage rates are now at historic lows and home prices have dropped considerably, improving affordability conditions. We also believe that the fiscal stimulus package offers a positive influence on the housing sector. Finally, Obama’s foreclosure mitigation plan is expected to slow the pace of foreclosures, providing more opportunities for new home sales.
On balance, the housing sector remains very weak and there remain risks to the downside. But, recent market developments suggest that the housing correction may be winding down. We continue to believe that the residential construction marketplace will remain weak for the remainder of this year, but at least, the worst may be over.
