Freddie Mac: Get Ready for 5% Rates in 2015

Rates on a thirty-year fixed rate mortgage will hit 5 percent by the end of next year, according to the latest forecast from Freddie Mac’s economists.

 Expect to see interest rates climb throughout 2015, with yields on the 10-year Treasury averaging about 2.9 percentage points, up from about 2.6 percentage points in 2014, and rates on the 30-year fixed mortgage gradually climbing, averaging 4.6 percent and rising to 5.0 percent by the end of next year, said Freddie’s November Outlook.

Meanwhile price increases will slow from 9.3 percent in 2013, to 4.5 percent in 2014 and 3.0 percent in 2015. Continued house price appreciation and rising mortgage rates will dampen homebuyer affordability. “Historically speaking, that’s moving from very high levels of affordability to high levels of affordability,” said the Outlook.

Total housing starts in 2015 will increase by 20 percent and total home sales will increase by about 5 percent over that time period to the best sales pace in eight years.

Single-family originations will fall an additional 8 percent from 2014 to 2015 to $1.1 trillion annualized as increases in purchase-money lending are insufficient to offset a drop in refinance. Refinance is expected to make up just 23 percent of originations in 2015.

Multifamily mortgage originations have risen about 60 percent between 2011 and 2014, and further increases in volume are anticipated in 2015, up about 14 percent in 2015 over 2014.

“The good news for 2015 is that the U.S. economy appears well poised to sustain about a 3 percent growth rate in 2015 — only the second year in the past decade with growth at that pace or better. There are several reasons for the better macroeconomic performance. Governmental fiscal drag has turned into fiscal stimulus, lower energy costs support consumer spending and business investment, further easing of credit conditions for business and real estate lending support commerce and development, and more upbeat consumer and business confidence, all of which portend faster economic growth in 2015. And with that, the economy will produce more and better-paying jobs, providing the financial wherewithal to support household formations and housing activity,” said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist.