Nearly half the nation’s states plus the District of Columbia have reached their price peaks from the housing boom or are within 10 percent of doing so, CoreLogic reported today.
“On a year-over-year basis, home prices have appreciated every month in 2013. Twenty-one states and the District of Columbia are now at or within 10 percent of their peaks,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “The outlook for 2014 looks a bit less robust as regulatory complexities and tight credit can be expected to cool the housing market.”
The CoreLogic Pending Home Price Index indicates that December 2013 home prices are expected to dip 0.1 percent month over month from November to December 2013, with a projected increase of 11.5 percent on a year-over-year basis from December 2012. Excluding distressed sales, December 2013 home prices are poised to rise 0.2 percent month over month from November 2013 and 10.6 percent year over year from December 2012. The CoreLogic Pending HPI is a proprietary and exclusive metric that provides the most current indication of trends in home prices. It is based on Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data that measure price changes for the most recent month.
“The housing market paused as expected in November for the holiday season with very low month-over-month appreciation. Year-over-year home prices are up an impressive 11.8 percent,” said Dr. Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. “Our pending HPI projects that home prices will grow by 11.5 percent for the full year 2013. That will make 2013 the best year for home-price appreciation since 2005.”
Year over year, home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased 11.8 percent in November 2013 compared to November 2012. This change represents the 21st consecutive monthly year-over-year increase in home prices nationally. On a month-over-month basis, home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased by 0.1 percent in November 2013 compared to October 2013.
Excluding distressed sales, home prices increased 0.3 percent month over month in November 2013 compared to October 2013. On a year-over-year basis, home prices, excluding distressed sales, increased by 10.4 percent in November 2013 compared to November 2012. Distressed sales include short sales and real-estate owned (REO) transactions.
Highlights as of November 2013:
- Including distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were Nevada (+25.3 percent), California (+21.3 percent), Michigan (+14.4 percent), Arizona (+13.5 percent) and Georgia (+13.3 percent).
- Including distressed sales, the only state to show depreciation was Arkansas (-1.1 percent).
- Excluding distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were Nevada (+21 percent), California (+17.6 percent), Idaho (+12.4 percent), Florida (+12.4 percent) and Arizona (+11.7 percent).
- Excluding distressed sales, no states posted home price depreciation in November.
- Including distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the national HPI (from April 2006 to November 2013) was -17.6 percent. Excluding distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the HPI for the same period was -13.3 percent.
- The five states with the largest peak-to-current declines, including distressed transactions, were Nevada (-40.5 percent), Florida (-37.3 percent), Arizona (-31.4 percent), Rhode Island (-29.4 percent) and Illinois (-24.5 percent).
- 96 of the top 100 Core Based Statistical Areas** (CBSAs) measured by population showed year-over-year increases in November 2013.