In its forecast for September year over year home prices, CoreLogic is ignoring predictions for a slowing down of the recovery with the end of the 2013 home buying season and predicts a 12.7 percent price hike in September after reporting August prices reached 12.4 percent.
If the September forecast proves true, September will be the 18th consecutive monthly year-over-year increase in home prices for the CoreLogic Home Price Index.
Excluding distressed sales, home prices increased on a year-over-year basis by 11.2 percent in August 2013 compared to August 2012. On a month-over-month basis, excluding distressed sales, home prices increased 1 percent in August 2013 compared to July 2013. Distressed sales include short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions. On a month-over-month basis, including distressed sales, home prices increased by 0.9 percent in August 2013 compared to July 2013*.
The CoreLogic Pending HPI indicates that September 2013 home prices, including distressed sales, are expected to rise by 12.7 percent on a year-over-year basis from September 2012 and rise by 0.2 percent on a month-over-month basis from August 2013. Excluding distressed sales, September 2013 home prices are poised to rise 12.2 percent year over year from September 2012 and by 0.7 percent month over month from August 2013. The CoreLogic Pending HPI is a proprietary and exclusive metric that provides the most current indication of trends in home prices. It is based on Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data that measure price changes for the most recent month.
“Home price gains were negligible month over month in August-an expected decrease in the pace of appreciation as housing enters the off-season,” said Dr. Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. “While prices increased more than 12 percent on a year-over-year basis, the month-to-month change is more telling of this year’s late summer trend.”
“After a strong run, the rate of home price appreciation slowed in August. In addition to normal seasonality, the recent sharp rise in mortgage rates off their historic lows was a clear driver behind the slowdown,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “We anticipate moderate gains in home prices over the balance of this year, supported by the recent downward trend in rates and continued tight supplies of homes in many markets.”
Highlights as of August 2013:
- Including distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were: Nevada (+25.9 percent), California (+23.1 percent), Arizona (+16.4 percent), Wyoming (+15 percent) and Georgia (+14.8 percent).
- Including distressed sales, no states posted home price depreciation in the month of August.
- Excluding distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were: Nevada (+23.4 percent), California (+19.8 percent), Arizona (+14 percent), Utah (+13.7 percent) and Florida (+13.5 percent).
- Excluding distressed sales, no states posted home price depreciation in the month of August.
- Including distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the national HPI (from April 2006 to August 2013) was -17.1 percent. Excluding distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the HPI for the same period was -12.6 percent.
- The five states with the largest peak-to-current declines, including distressed transactions, were Nevada (-41.9 percent), Florida (-37.2 percent), Arizona (-32 percent), Rhode Island (-29.1 percent) and Michigan (-25.7 percent).
- Of the top 100 Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) measured by population, 99 were showing year-over-year increases in August, equaling the measure in July 2013, the one CBSA that did not experience a gain was Akron, OH (-0.3 percent).
*July data was revised. Revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results.