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Fannie Sees First Net Decline in Home Sales Since 2010


On the same day that NAR released lackluster sales figures for April, Fannie Mae revised its annual sales forecast to predict a net loss in total new and existing home sales in 2014.

Fannie now expects 5.457 million total home to be sold in 2014, a decline of 1.1 percent from 2013.  Existing homes are forecast to fall to 4.981 million, or 2.1 percent below the level of 2013 sales.  If the forecast holds true, 2014 will be the first year since 2010 to register a net decline in total home sales.

The new May forecast lowers sales expectations by 76,000 units from April, or 1.3 percent.  At the outset of the new year, Fannie forecast 5.697 million total sales in 2014.  In the five months that followed, it has lowered its forecast by 240.000 units, or 4.2 percent.

However, Fannie’s price forecast remained steady at a median 0f $219,000, an increase of 5.2 percent over last year’s median price.

In a news release today Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan said the housing picture is worrisome, with existing home sales, new home sales, housing starts, and multifamily housing all experiencing year-over-year declines despite improving consumer attitudes.

“However, we anticipate a modest uptick in housing activity as the spring and summer selling and building seasons get under way.  We believe this year will likely be a bump in the long-term road back toward normal levels, which we continue to expect sometime in late 2016,” Duncan said.


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