Prices on both S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices reached their highest year-over-year gain in nearly eight years in October as they rose 0.2 percent over September. It was the seventeenth consecutive month that both the 10 and 20-city indexes increased on an annual basis.

Case-Shiller: October Price Increases Reach 13.6 Percent Year-over-year

January 2, 2014 in Beyond Today’s News, Current Indicators, Housing Data, Housing Markets, Market Activity 1 Comment

“Home prices increased again in October,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Both Composites’ annual returns have been in double-digit territory since March 2013 and increasing; now up 13.6% in the year ending in October. However, monthly numbers show we are living on borrowed time and the boom is fading.

Eighteen cities posted lower monthly rates in October than in September. After 19 months of gains, San Francisco showed a slightly negative return. Phoenix held onto its streak and posted its 25th consecutive increase.

“The year-over-year figures increased slightly from last month. Thirteen cities and both Composites posted double-digit annual returns. Cities at the top of the range (Las Vegas, San Diego and San Francisco) saw smaller annual increases. On the other hand, cities that have been relatively underperforming (Cleveland, New York and Washington) saw their annual gains grow. Miami showed the most improvement. Chicago recorded its highest annual rate (+10.9%) since December 1988. Charlotte and Dallas posted annual increases of 8.8% and 9.7%, their highest since the inception of their indices in 1987 and 2000.

“The key economic question facing housing is the Fed’s future course to scale back quantitative easing and how this will affect mortgage rates. Other housing data paint a mixed picture suggesting that we may be close to the peak gains in prices. However, other economic data point to somewhat faster growth in the new year. Most forecasts for home prices point to single digit growth in 2014.”

As of October 2013, average home prices across the United States are back to their mid-2004 levels. Measured from their June/July 2006 peaks, the peak-to-current decline for both Composites is approximately 20%. The recovery from the March 2012 lows is 23.1% and 23.7% for the 10-City and 20-City Composites.

However if Case-Shiller follows the path of other market reports that have already reported November results, the October price numbers may be Case-Shiller’s peak for 2013. Realtor.com, Clear Capital and Redfin all reported price decreases in November.

In October 2013, ten cities posted positive monthly returns. Las Vegas showed the largest gain with an increase of 1.2%, followed by Miami with a 1.1% monthly gain. Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, San Francisco, Seattle and Washington were the nine cities that declined month-over-month; two of them, Denver and Dallas, are slightly off their peak set last month. New York remained flat. Only Charlotte and Miami accelerated on a monthly basis.

All 20 cities posted growth from October 2012 to October 2013. Thirteen cities showed year-over-year acceleration in October as compared to last month. Las Vegas, Los Angeles and San Francisco continued to post increases of over 20%. Las Vegas maintained the lead, but its return decreased two percentage points to 27.1%. Miami’s annual rate increased the most from 14.3% in September to 15.8% in October.

More than 26 years of history for these data series are available, and can be accessed in full by going to www.homeprice.spdji.com. Additional content on the housing market may also be found on S&P Dow Jones Indices’ housing blog: www.housingviews.com.

	October 2013	October/September	September/August
Metropolitan Area	Level	Change (%)	Change (%)	1-Year Change (%)
Atlanta	113.72	-0.2%	0.5%	19.0%
Boston	168.43	-0.3%	0.5%	8.6%
Charlotte	125.54	0.6%	-0.2%	8.8%
Chicago	127.42	-0.5%	0.3%	10.9%
Cleveland	106.59	-0.2%	0.2%	4.9%
Dallas	132.47	-0.1%	0.2%	9.7%
Denver	146.78	-0.4%	0.2%	9.5%
Detroit	94.79	0.9%	1.4%	17.3%
Las Vegas	127.23	1.2%	1.3%	27.1%
Los Angeles	214.65	0.9%	1.1%	22.1%
Miami	173.63	1.1%	0.8%	15.8%
Minneapolis	139.11	0.5%	0.8%	11.3%
New York	173.23	0.0%	0.5%	4.9%
Phoenix	144.49	0.9%	1.2%	18.1%
Portland	160.46	0.2%	0.7%	12.7%
San Diego	194.07	0.3%	0.9%	19.7%
San Francisco	179.55	-0.2%	0.8%	24.6%
Seattle	160.39	-0.3%	0.3%	13.1%
Tampa	154.40	0.1%	0.2%	15.2%
Washington	204.38	-0.4%	0.4%	7.4%
Composite-10	180.27	0.2%	0.7%	13.6%
Composite-20	165.91	0.2%	0.7%	13.6%
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic
Data through October 2013

Since its launch in early 2006, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices have published, and the markets have followed and reported on, the non-seasonally adjusted data set used in the headline indices. For analytical purposes, S&P Dow Jones Indices publishes a seasonally adjusted data set covered in the headline indices, as well as for the 17 of 20 markets with tiered price indices and the five condo markets that are tracked.

A summary of the monthly changes using the seasonally adjusted (SA) and non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) data can be found in the table below.

	October/September Change (%)		September/August Change (%)
Metropolitan Area	NSA	SA	NSA	SA
Atlanta	-0.2%	1.8%	0.5%	2.0%
Boston	-0.3%	0.9%	0.5%	1.1%
Charlotte	0.6%	1.2%	-0.2%	0.4%
Chicago	-0.5%	0.8%	0.3%	0.7%
Cleveland	-0.2%	0.8%	0.2%	1.4%
Dallas	-0.1%	1.0%	0.2%	0.9%
Denver	-0.4%	0.3%	0.2%	0.8%
Detroit	0.9%	1.8%	1.4%	1.3%
Las Vegas	1.2%	0.6%	1.3%	1.6%
Los Angeles	0.9%	1.5%	1.1%	1.2%
Miami	1.1%	1.9%	0.8%	1.1%
Minneapolis	0.5%	1.6%	0.8%	0.9%
New York	0.0%	0.9%	0.5%	0.5%
Phoenix	0.9%	1.1%	1.2%	1.4%
Portland	0.2%	0.4%	0.7%	1.0%
San Diego	0.3%	0.7%	0.9%	1.2%
San Francisco	-0.2%	0.6%	0.8%	1.4%
Seattle	-0.3%	0.5%	0.3%	0.7%
Tampa	0.1%	0.9%	0.2%	1.0%
Washington	-0.4%	0.6%	0.4%	0.8%
Composite-10	0.2%	1.0%	0.7%	0.9%
Composite-20	0.2%	1.0%	0.7%	1.0%
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic
Data through October 2013