CoreLogic: Prices Warmed up in January and Will Rise More in February

March 4, 2014 in Beyond Today’s News, Featured, Forecasts, Housing Forecasts, Housing Markets, Market Analysis, Market Trends 1 Comment

Prices in January reached an increase of 12 percent year over year up 0.9 percent over December, despite the record winter weather. Prices will rise again in February, according to Corelogic’s Pending HPI.At the state level, including distressed sales, Louisiana, Nebraska and Texas surpassed their previous home price peaks in January 2014. In all, 22 states and the District of Columbia are at or within 10 percent of their peak home price appreciation. Additionally, over the past year, median prices in seven states equaled or grew faster than the nation as a whole, including Nevada, California, Oregon, Michigan, Georgia, Arizona and Florida.The CoreLogic Pending HPI indicates that February 2014 home prices, including distressed sales, are projected to increase 12.5 percent year over year from February 2013. On a month-over-month basis, home prices are expected to increase 0.7 percent from January 2014 to February 2014. Excluding distressed sales, February 2014 home prices are poised to rise 10.4 percent year over year from February 2013 and 1.1 percent month over month from January 2014.

“Polar vortices and a string of snow storms did not manage to weaken house price appreciation in January,” said Dr. Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. “The last time January month-over-month and year-over-year price appreciation was this strong was at the height of the housing bubble in 2006.”

“Excluding distressed sales, all 50 states and the District of Columbia showed year-over-year home price appreciation for January,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “Nationwide price growth like this should continue as the market comes out of hibernation for the spring buying season.”

Highlights as of January 2014:

Including distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were Nevada (+22.2 percent), California (+20.3 percent), Oregon (+14.3 percent), Michigan (+13.7 percent) and Georgia (+13.4 percent).
Including distressed sales, only Mississippi (-0.3 percent) posted home price depreciation in January 2014.
Excluding distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were Nevada (+17.2 percent), California (+16.0 percent), Florida (+12.7 percent), Arizona (+11.5 percent) and Oregon (+11.4 percent).
Excluding distressed sales, no states posted home price depreciation in January.
Including distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the national HPI (from April 2006 to January 2014) was -17.3 percent. Excluding distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the HPI for the same period was -13.3 percent.
The five states with the largest peak-to-current declines, including distressed transactions, were Nevada (-40.1 percent), Florida (-36.4 percent), Arizona (-30.8 percent), Rhode Island (-30.5 percent) and West Virginia (-28.9 percent).
Ninety-seven of the top 100 Core Based Statistical Areas** (CBSAs) measured by population showed year-over-year increases in January 2014. The three CBSAs that did not show an increase were New Haven-Milford, CT, Philadelphia, PA. and Rochester, NY.

*December data was revised. Revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results.
**The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) issued a bulletin on Feb. 28, 2013, establishing revised Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA) delineations. These new delineations are reflected in this data.

January HPI for the Country’s Largest CBSAs by Population (Ranked by Single Family, Including Distressed):

CBSA	January 2014 12-Month HPI
	Change by CBSA
	Single Family Including Distressed	Single Family Excluding Distressed
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA	22.3%	18.6%
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA	19.7%	16.2%
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA	15.9%	11.0%
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ	14.2%	12.0%
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX	12.7%	10.4%
Chicago-Naperville-Arlington Heights, IL	12.6%	11.6%
Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX	12.2%	10.5%
New York-Jersey City-White Plains, NY-NJ	9.5%	9.1%
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI	9.3%	9.6%
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV	7.2%	6.3%

Source: CoreLogic.

January National and State HPI (Ranked by Single Family, Including Distressed):

State	January 2014 12-Month HPI
	Change by State
	Single Family Including Distressed	Single Family Excluding Distressed
National	12.0%	9.8%
Nevada	22.2%	17.2%
California	20.3%	16.0%
Oregon	14.2%	11.4%
Michigan	13.7%	9.6%
Georgia	13.4%	9.3%
Arizona	13.1%	11.5%
Florida	12.5%	12.7%
Washington	11.6%	10.7%
Hawaii	11.1%	8.9%
Idaho	11.1%	9.9%
Texas	10.1%	8.4%
Utah	10.0%	8.8%
Wyoming	9.9%	1.5%
Illinois	9.9%	8.8%
Massachusetts	9.8%	9.4%
South Carolina	9.3%	9.0%
Minnesota	8.6%	8.6%
Colorado	8.5%	7.2%
Missouri	8.3%	6.9%
New York	8.0%	7.9%
Alabama	7.7%	8.9%
Tennessee	7.5%	7.2%
Delaware	6.8%	7.1%
North Carolina	6.7%	7.7%
New Jersey	6.6%	5.9%
Maryland	6.6%	5.8%
Louisiana	6.0%	6.2%
Maine	6.0%	9.6%
North Dakota	5.9%	5.6%
South Dakota	5.6%	5.9%
Virginia	5.4%	5.9%
New Hampshire	5.4%	4.2%
Montana	5.3%	7.1%
District of Columbia	5.2%	3.9%
Ohio	4.7%	4.2%
Rhode Island	4.7%	3.2%
Indiana	4.4%	4.3%
West Virginia	4.2%	7.1%
Nebraska	4.2%	2.8%
Kansas	4.0%	4.7%
Connecticut	3.9%	4.1%
Pennsylvania	3.6%	3.7%
Alaska	3.6%	2.9%
Vermont	3.5%	2.0%
Oklahoma	2.5%	3.6%
Wisconsin	2.0%	3.8%
Iowa	1.9%	3.1%
New Mexico	0.4%	2.2%
Kentucky	0.3%	1.7%
Arkansas	0.1%	3.7%
Mississippi	-0.3%	2.5%