The experts have spoken and their short and long term expectations for home prices next year are slightly more conservative than leading economists at real estate research organizations and trade associations have forecasted that after price growth around 4 percent this year, they will moderate in 2016 and thereafter.

More than 100 real estate experts and economists participating in the quarterly Pulsenomics survey project an annual price growth rate of 3.9 percent through the end of this year –a gradual slowing of the U.S. housing market. Over the next five years, among all 108 panel respondents, the expected average annual home-value appreciation rate would fall to an average annual; appreciation rate of 3 percent. This scenario would result in a national median home value of more than $215,000 by the end of 2020.

No Peaks Until 2017

“Based on the projections of the most optimistic forecasters, home values nationally will increase 4.7 percent next year and surpass their May 2007 peak levels in April 2017. In contrast, the data collected from the panel’s most pessimistic respondents expect only 2.3 percent appreciation for next year and even more subdued appreciation thereafter – a path that would delay market’s eclipse of the bubble peak until September 2019,” said Pulsenomics Founder Terry Loebs.

The Pulsenomics consensus of 4.9 percent appreciation for 2015 and average of 3 percent per hear is significantly lower than projections by economists at NAR, CoreLogic and the GSEs, with a couple of exceptions like Zillow and Clear Capital.  Here’s a summary of their latest forecasts.

Forecasted Housing Appreciation Rates