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Freddie Mac: Local Markets are Stabilizing, Weakness Overall

Freddie Mac: Local Markets are Stabilizing, Weakness Overall

Eight additional metro and state housing markets showed positive momentum in August butFreddie Mac’s Multi-Indicator Market Index® (MiMi) stands at 73.3, indicating a weak housing market overall and showing a very slight decline (-0.19%) from July to August and a 3-month decline of (-0.47%).

However, n a year-over-year basis, the U.S. housing market has improved (4.09%). The nation’s all-time MiMi high of 121.9 was June 2008; its low was 59.8 in September, 2011, when the housing market was at its weakest. Since that time, the housing market has made a 22.6 percent rebound.

August findings:

  • Thirteen of the 50 states plus the District of Columbia have MiMi values in a stable range, with North Dakota (96.1) the District of Columbia (93.5), Wyoming (91.0), Montana (89.4) and Alaska (87.7) ranking in the top five.
  • Six of the 50 metro areas have MiMi values in a stable range, with San Antonio (90.9), Austin (87.0), Houston (83.6), Salt Lake City (83.6) and New Orleans (83.0), ranking in the top five.
  • The most improving states month-over-month were Michigan (+1.01%), Nevada (+0.95%), Colorado (+0.94%), Kentucky (+0.82%) and Rhode Island (+0.72%). On a year-over-year basis, the most improving states were Nevada (+20.51%), Illinois (+12.16%), Florida (+11.75%), California (9.15%) and South Carolina (+8.01%).
  • The most improving metro areas month-over-month were Las Vegas (+1.03%), Detroit (+0.95%), Kansas City (+0.90%) Denver (+0.82%) and Chicago (+0.79%). On a year-over-year basis the most improving metro areas were Las Vegas (+21.53%), Chicago (+13.98%), Riverside, (+11.99%), Miami (+11.43%) and Orlando (+8.70 %).
  • In August, 18 of the 50 states and 18 of the 50 metros are showing an improving three month trend. The same time last year, every state plus the District of Columbia, and every metro was showing an improving three month trend.

“The bleeding has stopped from the rate increases from a year ago which is reflected in the stable picture at the national level. Moreover, we’ve seen a pick-up in the number of states and metros improving at the local levels based on their three month trend pointing once again to more housing markets working their way back to the fundamentals which is reflected in the key indicators MiMi tracks each month,” said Freddie Mac Chief Economist Frank Nothaft.

MiMi monitors and measures the stability of the nation’s housing market, as well as the housing markets of all 50 states, the District of Columbia, and the top 50 metro markets. MiMi combines proprietary Freddie Mac data with current local market data to assess where each single-family housing market is relative to its own long-term stable range by looking at home purchase applications, payment-to-income ratios (changes in home purchasing power based on house prices, mortgage rates and household income), proportion of on-time mortgage payments in each market, and the local employment picture. The four indicators are combined to create a composite MiMi value for each market. Monthly, MiMi uses this data to show, at a glance, where each market stands relative to its own stable range of housing activity. MiMi also indicates how each market is trending, whether it is moving closer to, or further away from, its stable range. A market can fall outside its stable range by being too weak to generate enough demand for a well-balanced housing market or by overheating to an unsustainable level of activity.



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