(September 16, 2009 Release)
• The housing market index rose by 1 point in September to 19 from a 18 registered in August.
• The September index of 19 is 2 points above the 17 registered in September of 2008.
• The buyer traffic index rose slightly to 17 in September from 16 in August.
• Homebuilder expectations over the next 6 months fell 1 point to 29 compared to a August index of 30.
|NAHB Housing Market Index|
|Sept 09||Aug 09||3 mo Avg||6 mo Avg|
|Housing Market Index||19||18||18.0||16.5|
|Single Family Sales|
|Next 6 months||29||30||28.3||27.0|
Source: National Association of Home Builders
The housing market index is a leading indicator of future new home sales. The September numbers reflect a slight upward trend in the homebuilding industry. The September index of 19 is now 11 points above the cyclical bottom of 8 set in January. However, the September index remains at a relatively low level and a downside still remains due to the economic recession, mounting job losses, tight credit conditions and mounting foreclosures. An excess inventory of homes and the frightful prospect of a sizeable amount of option ARM and interest only resets over the next two years are keeping builder optimism at bay. We continue to believe that the homebuilding recovery will be a slow and painful one.