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Housing Market Index (NAHB)-Sept 09

(September 16, 2009 Release)

Highlights

• The housing market index rose by 1 point in September to 19 from a 18 registered in August.
• The September index of 19 is 2 points above the 17 registered in September of 2008.
• The buyer traffic index rose slightly to 17 in September from 16 in August.
• Homebuilder expectations over the next 6 months fell 1 point to 29 compared to a August index of 30.

NAHB Housing Market Index
Sept 09 Aug 09 3 mo Avg 6 mo Avg
Housing Market Index 19 18 18.0 16.5
Northeast 24 22 20.7 19.2
Midwest 19 16 16.3 15.2
South 19 17 18.3 17.5
West 18 17 16.3 14.0
Single Family Sales
Present 18 16 16.7 15.0
Next 6 months 29 30 28.3 27.0
Buyer Traffic 17 16 15.3 14.2

Source: National Association of Home Builders

Analysis

The housing market index is a leading indicator of future new home sales. The September numbers reflect a slight upward trend in the homebuilding industry. The September index of 19 is now 11 points above the cyclical bottom of 8 set in January. However, the September index remains at a relatively low level and a downside still remains due to the economic recession, mounting job losses, tight credit conditions and mounting foreclosures. An excess inventory of homes and the frightful prospect of a sizeable amount of option ARM and interest only resets over the next two years are keeping builder optimism at bay. We continue to believe that the homebuilding recovery will be a slow and painful one.

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