RealEstateEconomyWatch.com Insight and Intelligence on Residential Real Estate
(July 28, 2009 Release)
Highlights
- The Case-Shiller 10-city index fell 16.8 percent in May compared to a year earlier.
- The Case-Shiller 20-city index fell 17.1 percent in May compared to a year earlier.
- All of the 20 metros reported annual rates of decline.
| Case-Shiller Home Price Index, SA | ||
| May 09 | Yr/Yr % Change | |
| Atlanta | 105.7 | -15.0 |
| Boston | 145.8 | -7.2 |
| Charlotte | 119.8 | -10.0 |
| Chicago | 123.68 | -17.5 |
| Cleveland | 102.1 | -6.2 |
| Dallas | 116.5 | -4.1 |
| Denver | 123.8 | -4.6 |
| Detroit | 71.0 | -24.5 |
| Las Vegas | 109.5 | -32.0 |
| Los Angeles | 159.2 | -19.8 |
| Miami | 144.6 | -25.2 |
| Minneapolis | 109.8 | -21.7 |
| New York | 170.5 | -12.2 |
| Phoenix | 103.6 | -34.2 |
| Portland | 147.0 | -16.3 |
| San Diego | 145.1 | -18.5 |
| San Francisco | 120.2 | -26.1 |
| Seattle | 149.0 | -16.6 |
| Tampa | 140.4 | -20.8 |
| Washington | 169.5 | -14.9 |
| Composite 10-city Index | 151.0 | -16.8 |
| Composite 20-city Index | 139.8 | -17.1 |
Source: Standard & Poors
Analysis
The Case-Shiller indices fell at a slower year over year pace in May than in March and April, but not by much. However, the 20 city index increased by 0.5 percent in May from April, while the 10 city index increased by 0.4 percent on a month to month basis. This was the first monthly increase in the monthly index since July 2006. Seventeen of the twenty cities experienced slower year over year depreciation between May and April. Phoenix, Las Vegas and San Francisco experienced the largest year over year declines at 34.2 percent, 32 percent and 26.1 percent, respectively. Conversely, Dallas, Denver and Cleveland experienced the smallest price losses in May, registering a negative 4.1, 4.6 and 6.2 percent, respectively.
It appears that a decrease in foreclosure sales has contributed to the slowing of price depreciation in the Case-Shiller indices. However, foreclosure sales could pick up again which would exert downward pressure on home values. On a positive note, both existing and new home inventories are shrinking which suggests a further slowing in price depreciation in the coming months. However, the flow of foreclosures into the marketplace remains the wild card.
