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Case Shiller Price Index-May 09

(July 28, 2009 Release)

Highlights

  • The Case-Shiller 10-city index fell 16.8 percent in May compared to a year earlier.
  • The Case-Shiller 20-city index fell 17.1 percent in May compared to a year earlier.
  • All of the 20 metros reported annual rates of decline.
Case-Shiller Home Price Index, SA
May 09 Yr/Yr % Change
Atlanta 105.7 -15.0
Boston 145.8 -7.2
Charlotte 119.8 -10.0
Chicago 123.68 -17.5
Cleveland 102.1 -6.2
Dallas 116.5 -4.1
Denver 123.8 -4.6
Detroit 71.0 -24.5
Las Vegas 109.5 -32.0
Los Angeles 159.2 -19.8
Miami 144.6 -25.2
Minneapolis 109.8 -21.7
New York 170.5 -12.2
Phoenix 103.6 -34.2
Portland 147.0 -16.3
San Diego 145.1 -18.5
San Francisco 120.2 -26.1
Seattle 149.0 -16.6
Tampa 140.4 -20.8
Washington 169.5 -14.9
Composite 10-city Index 151.0 -16.8
Composite 20-city Index 139.8 -17.1

Source: Standard & Poors

Analysis

The Case-Shiller indices fell at a slower year over year pace in May than in March and April, but not by much. However, the 20 city index increased by 0.5 percent in May from April, while the 10 city index increased by 0.4 percent on a month to month basis. This was the first monthly increase in the monthly index since July 2006. Seventeen of the twenty cities experienced slower year over year depreciation between May and April. Phoenix, Las Vegas and San Francisco experienced the largest year over year declines at 34.2 percent, 32 percent and 26.1 percent, respectively. Conversely, Dallas, Denver and Cleveland experienced the smallest price losses in May, registering a negative 4.1, 4.6 and 6.2 percent, respectively.

It appears that a decrease in foreclosure sales has contributed to the slowing of price depreciation in the Case-Shiller indices. However, foreclosure sales could pick up again which would exert downward pressure on home values. On a positive note, both existing and new home inventories are shrinking which suggests a further slowing in price depreciation in the coming months. However, the flow of foreclosures into the marketplace remains the wild card.

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