Case-Shiller: Prices Rose 11.2% in Q3, Best in 7 Years

January 30, 2014 in Market Analysis 1 Comment

The CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indexes estimate that home prices increased by 11.2 percent in the third quarter of 2013 compared to a year ago. Home prices nationwide were 17 percent above the trough reached in the fourth quarter of 2011, but remained 23 percent below the peak reached in the first quarter of 2006. The analysis projects that price appreciation is expected to slow to 4.2 percent nationally through the third quarter of 2014 across all U.S. markets, close to its long-term annual average of 4.5 percent recorded since 1975.

“Investor demand and sales of foreclosed properties are dropping quickly,” said Dr. David Stiff, principal economist for CoreLogic Case-Shiller™. “This is especially true in states that were caught up early in the bubble and have non-judicial foreclosure proceedings, such as California and Arizona. In these states, inventories of bank-owned properties are close to being cleared. Non-investor demand, although increasing, will not replace demand from investors.”

The large metro areas, defined as those with populations greater than 950,000, that experienced the most rapid appreciation rates on a year-over-year basis compared to third quarter 2012 were Las Vegas (+30 percent), Sacramento (+27 percent) and Riverside, Calif. (+26 percent). The large metro areas with the slowest appreciation rates were Philadelphia (+3 percent), Hartford, Conn (+3 percent) and New Orleans (+3 percent).

“Double-digit price gains are unlikely to persist, but since housing is far more affordable now than it was in 2006, there is less concern that a new housing bubble will occur. As of the third quarter of 2013, the ratio of median mortgage payment to median family income was at a 40-year low and 35 percent lower than it was at the peak of the bubble, even after accounting for recent increases in prices and mortgage interest rates,” Dr. Stiff said.

Metro areas with large projected year-over-year gains through the third quarter of 2014 are Oakland, Calif. (+9 percent), New Orleans (+9 percent) and Fort Worth, Texas (+9 percent). The large metro areas with smaller projected gains are Nashville, Tenn. (+2), Orlando, Fla. (+3 percent) and Jacksonville, Fla. (+3 percent).

Selected U.S. markets

Metro Area
Metro Area	Population *(2012)*	Change in Home Prices (Q3 2012 to Q3 2013)	Change in Home Prices (Q3 2010 to Q3 2013)	Forecast Change in Home Prices (Q3 2013 to Q3 2014)
United States	313,914,040	11.2%	11.3%	4.2%
Las Vegas, Nev.	2,000,759	29.6%	24.6%	5.4%
Sacramento, Calif.	2,196,482	27.1%	23.9%	3.8%
Riverside, Calif.	4,350,096	25.7%	25.0%	5.0%
Oakland, Calif.	2,634,317	25.6%	27.4%	9.3%
Los Angeles, Calif.	9,962,789	22.0%	22.5%	6.8%
San Jose, Calif.	1,894,388	20.8%	29.9%	4.6%
San Francisco, Calif.	1,821,243	20.2%	25.2%	4.8%
Detroit, Mich.	1,792,365	19.8%	48.8%	4.4%
Phoenix, Ariz.	4,329,534	18.7%	34.2%	4.3%
Atlanta, Ga.	5,439,950	18.5%	7.1%	5.3%
Orlando, Fla.	2,223,674	17.2%	21.0%	2.9%
Warren, Mich.	2,499,695	15.7%	29.4%	4.0%
Fort Lauderdale, Fla.	1,815,137	15.6%	18.3%	4.4%
West Palm Beach, Fla.	1,356,545	14.8%	14.8%	3.6%
Tampa, Fla.	2,842,878	14.6%	13.3%	8.0%
Miami, Fla.	2,591,035	12.7%	24.2%	3.9%
Jacksonville, Fla.	1,377,850	12.3%	7.5%	3.2%
Houston, Texas	6,204,161	11.4%	19.8%	3.9%
Salt Lake City, Utah	1,161,715	11.3%	15.4%	6.3%
Austin, Texas	1,834,303	10.1%	20.3%	3.7%
Tucson, Ariz.	992,394	9.6%	4.0%	8.8%
Chicago, Ill.	7,945,578	9.5%	3.1%	5.4%
Indianapolis, Ind.	1,798,634	9.0%	14.6%	6.6%
Columbus, Ohio	1,878,714	8.1%	8.3%	4.3%
San Antonio, Texas	2,234,003	7.6%	11.6%	3.7%
Richmond, Va.	1,282,305	7.2%	9.1%	8.5%
St. Louis, Mo.	2,845,721	6.8%	2.9%	6.0%
Nashville, Tenn.	1,644,703	6.3%	6.7%	2.0%
Milwaukee, Wis.	1,566,981	6.2%	2.1%	6.1%
Fort Worth, Texas	2,213,738	5.9%	11.1%	8.9%
Raleigh-Cary, N.C.	1,188,564	5.3%	8.4%	6.1%
Camden, N.J.	1,254,461	5.0%	-3.8%	7.3%
Baltimore, Md.	2,753,149	4.8%	2.4%	8.0%
Kansas City, Mo.	2,064,630	4.8%	9.1%	6.7%
Edison, N.J.	2,360,602	4.2%	-0.8%	4.3%
Nassau-Suffolk, N.Y.	2,848,506	3.3%	-1.4%	4.8%
Virginia Beach, Va.	1,694,900	3.3%	-3.2%	4.4%
Philadelphia, Pa.	4,050,793	3.1%	-0.3%	6.4%
Hartford, Conn.	1,214,400	2.9%	-2.5%	8.3%
New Orleans, La.	1,205,374	2.7%	6.4%	8.7%

Selected U.S. markets

*Metro Area*
*Metro Area*	*Population (2012)*	*Change in Home Prices (Q3 2012 to Q3 2013)*	*Change in Home Prices (Q3 2010 to Q3 2013)*	*Forecast Change in Home Prices (Q3 2013 to Q3 2014)*
United States	313,914,040	11.2%	11.3%	4.2%
Las Vegas, Nev.	2,000,759	29.6%	24.6%	5.4%
Sacramento, Calif.	2,196,482	27.1%	23.9%	3.8%
Riverside, Calif.	4,350,096	25.7%	25.0%	5.0%
Oakland, Calif.	2,634,317	25.6%	27.4%	9.3%
Los Angeles, Calif.	9,962,789	22.0%	22.5%	6.8%
San Jose, Calif.	1,894,388	20.8%	29.9%	4.6%
San Francisco, Calif.	1,821,243	20.2%	25.2%	4.8%
Detroit, Mich.	1,792,365	19.8%	48.8%	4.4%
Phoenix, Ariz.	4,329,534	18.7%	34.2%	4.3%
Atlanta, Ga.	5,439,950	18.5%	7.1%	5.3%
Orlando, Fla.	2,223,674	17.2%	21.0%	2.9%
Warren, Mich.	2,499,695	15.7%	29.4%	4.0%
Fort Lauderdale, Fla.	1,815,137	15.6%	18.3%	4.4%
West Palm Beach, Fla.	1,356,545	14.8%	14.8%	3.6%
Tampa, Fla.	2,842,878	14.6%	13.3%	8.0%
Miami, Fla.	2,591,035	12.7%	24.2%	3.9%
Jacksonville, Fla.	1,377,850	12.3%	7.5%	3.2%
Houston, Texas	6,204,161	11.4%	19.8%	3.9%
Salt Lake City, Utah	1,161,715	11.3%	15.4%	6.3%
Austin, Texas	1,834,303	10.1%	20.3%	3.7%
Tucson, Ariz.	992,394	9.6%	4.0%	8.8%
Chicago, Ill.	7,945,578	9.5%	3.1%	5.4%
Indianapolis, Ind.	1,798,634	9.0%	14.6%	6.6%
Columbus, Ohio	1,878,714	8.1%	8.3%	4.3%
San Antonio, Texas	2,234,003	7.6%	11.6%	3.7%
Richmond, Va.	1,282,305	7.2%	9.1%	8.5%
St. Louis, Mo.	2,845,721	6.8%	2.9%	6.0%
Nashville, Tenn.	1,644,703	6.3%	6.7%	2.0%
Milwaukee, Wis.	1,566,981	6.2%	2.1%	6.1%
Fort Worth, Texas	2,213,738	5.9%	11.1%	8.9%
Raleigh-Cary, N.C.	1,188,564	5.3%	8.4%	6.1%
Camden, N.J.	1,254,461	5.0%	-3.8%	7.3%
Baltimore, Md.	2,753,149	4.8%	2.4%	8.0%
Kansas City, Mo.	2,064,630	4.8%	9.1%	6.7%
Edison, N.J.	2,360,602	4.2%	-0.8%	4.3%
Nassau-Suffolk, N.Y.	2,848,506	3.3%	-1.4%	4.8%
Virginia Beach, Va.	1,694,900	3.3%	-3.2%	4.4%
Philadelphia, Pa.	4,050,793	3.1%	-0.3%	6.4%
Hartford, Conn.	1,214,400	2.9%	-2.5%	8.3%
New Orleans, La.	1,205,374	2.7%	6.4%	8.7%

Selected U.S. markets

Metro Area
Metro Area	Population *(2012)*	Change in Home Prices (Q3 2012 to Q3 2013)	Change in Home Prices (Q3 2010 to Q3 2013)	Forecast Change in Home Prices (Q3 2013 to Q3 2014)
United States	313,914,040	11.2%	11.3%	4.2%
Las Vegas, Nev.	2,000,759	29.6%	24.6%	5.4%
Sacramento, Calif.	2,196,482	27.1%	23.9%	3.8%
Riverside, Calif.	4,350,096	25.7%	25.0%	5.0%
Oakland, Calif.	2,634,317	25.6%	27.4%	9.3%
Los Angeles, Calif.	9,962,789	22.0%	22.5%	6.8%
San Jose, Calif.	1,894,388	20.8%	29.9%	4.6%
San Francisco, Calif.	1,821,243	20.2%	25.2%	4.8%
Detroit, Mich.	1,792,365	19.8%	48.8%	4.4%
Phoenix, Ariz.	4,329,534	18.7%	34.2%	4.3%
Atlanta, Ga.	5,439,950	18.5%	7.1%	5.3%
Orlando, Fla.	2,223,674	17.2%	21.0%	2.9%
Warren, Mich.	2,499,695	15.7%	29.4%	4.0%
Fort Lauderdale, Fla.	1,815,137	15.6%	18.3%	4.4%
West Palm Beach, Fla.	1,356,545	14.8%	14.8%	3.6%
Tampa, Fla.	2,842,878	14.6%	13.3%	8.0%
Miami, Fla.	2,591,035	12.7%	24.2%	3.9%
Jacksonville, Fla.	1,377,850	12.3%	7.5%	3.2%
Houston, Texas	6,204,161	11.4%	19.8%	3.9%
Salt Lake City, Utah	1,161,715	11.3%	15.4%	6.3%
Austin, Texas	1,834,303	10.1%	20.3%	3.7%
Tucson, Ariz.	992,394	9.6%	4.0%	8.8%
Chicago, Ill.	7,945,578	9.5%	3.1%	5.4%
Indianapolis, Ind.	1,798,634	9.0%	14.6%	6.6%
Columbus, Ohio	1,878,714	8.1%	8.3%	4.3%
San Antonio, Texas	2,234,003	7.6%	11.6%	3.7%
Richmond, Va.	1,282,305	7.2%	9.1%	8.5%
St. Louis, Mo.	2,845,721	6.8%	2.9%	6.0%
Nashville, Tenn.	1,644,703	6.3%	6.7%	2.0%
Milwaukee, Wis.	1,566,981	6.2%	2.1%	6.1%
Fort Worth, Texas	2,213,738	5.9%	11.1%	8.9%
Raleigh-Cary, N.C.	1,188,564	5.3%	8.4%	6.1%
Camden, N.J.	1,254,461	5.0%	-3.8%	7.3%
Baltimore, Md.	2,753,149	4.8%	2.4%	8.0%
Kansas City, Mo.	2,064,630	4.8%	9.1%	6.7%
Edison, N.J.	2,360,602	4.2%	-0.8%	4.3%
Nassau-Suffolk, N.Y.	2,848,506	3.3%	-1.4%	4.8%
Virginia Beach, Va.	1,694,900	3.3%	-3.2%	4.4%
Philadelphia, Pa.	4,050,793	3.1%	-0.3%	6.4%
Hartford, Conn.	1,214,400	2.9%	-2.5%	8.3%
New Orleans, La.	1,205,374	2.7%	6.4%	8.7%

Selected U.S. markets

Metro Area
Metro Area	Population *(2012)*	Change in Home Prices (Q3 2012 to Q3 2013)	Change in Home Prices (Q3 2010 to Q3 2013)	Forecast Change in Home Prices (Q3 2013 to Q3 2014)
United States	313,914,040	11.2%	11.3%	4.2%
Las Vegas, Nev.	2,000,759	29.6%	24.6%	5.4%
Sacramento, Calif.	2,196,482	27.1%	23.9%	3.8%
Riverside, Calif.	4,350,096	25.7%	25.0%	5.0%
Oakland, Calif.	2,634,317	25.6%	27.4%	9.3%
Los Angeles, Calif.	9,962,789	22.0%	22.5%	6.8%
San Jose, Calif.	1,894,388	20.8%	29.9%	4.6%
San Francisco, Calif.	1,821,243	20.2%	25.2%	4.8%
Detroit, Mich.	1,792,365	19.8%	48.8%	4.4%
Phoenix, Ariz.	4,329,534	18.7%	34.2%	4.3%
Atlanta, Ga.	5,439,950	18.5%	7.1%	5.3%
Orlando, Fla.	2,223,674	17.2%	21.0%	2.9%
Warren, Mich.	2,499,695	15.7%	29.4%	4.0%
Fort Lauderdale, Fla.	1,815,137	15.6%	18.3%	4.4%
West Palm Beach, Fla.	1,356,545	14.8%	14.8%	3.6%
Tampa, Fla.	2,842,878	14.6%	13.3%	8.0%
Miami, Fla.	2,591,035	12.7%	24.2%	3.9%
Jacksonville, Fla.	1,377,850	12.3%	7.5%	3.2%
Houston, Texas	6,204,161	11.4%	19.8%	3.9%
Salt Lake City, Utah	1,161,715	11.3%	15.4%	6.3%
Austin, Texas	1,834,303	10.1%	20.3%	3.7%
Tucson, Ariz.	992,394	9.6%	4.0%	8.8%
Chicago, Ill.	7,945,578	9.5%	3.1%	5.4%
Indianapolis, Ind.	1,798,634	9.0%	14.6%	6.6%
Columbus, Ohio	1,878,714	8.1%	8.3%	4.3%
San Antonio, Texas	2,234,003	7.6%	11.6%	3.7%
Richmond, Va.	1,282,305	7.2%	9.1%	8.5%
St. Louis, Mo.	2,845,721	6.8%	2.9%	6.0%
Nashville, Tenn.	1,644,703	6.3%	6.7%	2.0%
Milwaukee, Wis.	1,566,981	6.2%	2.1%	6.1%
Fort Worth, Texas	2,213,738	5.9%	11.1%	8.9%
Raleigh-Cary, N.C.	1,188,564	5.3%	8.4%	6.1%
Camden, N.J.	1,254,461	5.0%	-3.8%	7.3%
Baltimore, Md.	2,753,149	4.8%	2.4%	8.0%
Kansas City, Mo.	2,064,630	4.8%	9.1%	6.7%
Edison, N.J.	2,360,602	4.2%	-0.8%	4.3%
Nassau-Suffolk, N.Y.	2,848,506	3.3%	-1.4%	4.8%
Virginia Beach, Va.	1,694,900	3.3%	-3.2%	4.4%
Philadelphia, Pa.	4,050,793	3.1%	-0.3%	6.4%
Hartford, Conn.	1,214,400	2.9%	-2.5%	8.3%
New Orleans, La.	1,205,374	2.7%	6.4%	8.7%

Selected U.S. markets (other metro areas available upon request):

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